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Saudi Arabia to raise oil production as kingdom shifts strategy towards market share
Last week, Saudi Arabia announced it will no longer give up market share, as it has been withholding production in pursuit of higher prices. The world’s second-largest oil producer (behind the US) has cut production by around two million barrels per day (b/d) since 2022. The kingdom has announced plans to increase monthly production by 83,000 b/d from December 2024 to December 2025, boosting output by 1mn b/d from current levels by December 2025.
Saudi Arabia’s oil production is mostly export-oriented, and therefore, rising production is very positive for tankers, particularly as greater volumes from the Americas (US, Brazil, Guyana) are also likely to continue. The news of greater Saudi Arabia production comes ahead of the winter market when tanker rates typically strengthen due to greater winter-related energy demands globally. In this light, Clarksons Securities believes VLCC rates could surge to USD 100,000 per day if the OPEC+ group also follows Saudi Arabia’s lead in expanding production.
Rising crude demand was also reported on by Gibson’s shipbrokers, who focused on Russia and its likely reintroduction of greater barrels to the market. Their forecast is based on the Russian summer driving season coming to end, during which greater crude volumes are directed toward domestic refineries to meet gasoline demand. With winter approaching, it is likely Russia will again orient a greater share of its crude production towards exports, increasing fleet utilization in the process.
Aframax ECO, 12-monatiger Vertrag
Aframax, Average spot
Suezmax ECO, 12-monatiger Vertrag
Suezmax, Average spot
Quelle : Clarksons Research
World’s first carbon-free ammonia-powered voyage completed, and China is committed to ammonia
The world’s first carbon-free ammonia-powered vessel completes its maiden voyage. A tugboat, christened the NH3 Kraken, sailed on a tributary of the Hudson River upstream from New York City last week, showcasing the potential of Amogy’s ammonia cracking technology, designed to run on green ammonia. The voyage validates on a smaller scale the maritime sector’s move towards ammonia as a green alternative for marine fuel of the future.
As the marine world looks at the demand side to power the growing number of ammonia-capable vessel engines, the Center on Global Energy Policy recently published an article focusing on China’s ambitions to ramp up its green ammonia generation. China is already the leading ammonia producer globally at around 30%, with its domestic economy consuming most of that supply, as 71% goes towards the agricultural sector alone. China’s current ammonia production is almost entirely produced via non-green processes; however, the world’s second-largest economy recognizes the opportunity for green ammonia to play a growing role in its energy matrix and economy more broadly.
Wallenius Wilhelmsen see limited impact of tariffs on the PCTC market and China’s automobile production
Last week, Norwegian-based PCTC owner and operator Wallenius Wilhelmsen (WW) hosted its 2024 capital markets day, sharing market insights and greater detail on its outlook for 2024 and beyond. In addition to highlighting the very high utilization driven by rapid vehicle export growth from Asia, Wallenius Wilhelmsen shared greater granularity on the recent tariff situation. The key takeaway was that WW expect China to continue ramping exports up despite tariffs.
Wallenius Wilhelmsen suggests that only 13% of vehicle exports from Asia go to North America, of which the majority are destined for Mexico, where China is the leading supplier of automobiles. As a result, the impacts of US and Canadian tariffs are limited. Overall, Wallenius Wilhelmsen sees that vessel utilization will remain strong.
5000 CEU – 12-monatiger Vertrag
6500 CEU – 12-monatiger Vertrag
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